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Monday, November 15, 2010

Updating Georgia's bowl picture (assuming you still care)

An official from the Liberty Bowl was standing a few feet away from Mark Richt on Saturday during the Georgia head coach’s postgame press conference. That’s not too unusual – those people in their garish jackets are everywhere – but it was another indication of Georgia’s possible bowl destination.

The New Year’s Day bowls are now all but officially out, thanks to the loss to Auburn. So Bulldog fans, you can pretty much start making your plans to either go to Nashville, Memphis or Birmingham – or to stay home.

(Or you may be so turned off by this season that you stay home while Georgia continues its bowl streak. Hey, it’s your choice. I have to go either way.)

If Georgia beats Georgia Tech, it's guaranteed to make a bowl. But which one depends heavily on whether Tennessee and/or Ole Miss qualifies and the SEC gets a second team in the BCS.

Here’s the SEC breakdown as of now:

BCS: The SEC looks good to have two teams qualify. As of today it would be Auburn in the title game, and LSU (or Alabama) getting an at-large. Auburn would probably have to lose both of its final games (Alabama and the SEC title game) not to get in. LSU would have to fall to Ole Miss or Arkansas. South Carolina would get in, obviously, if it beats Auburn in Atlanta. Alabama would have a shot too if it wins the Iron Bowl.
Basically, that’s too many possibilities not to proceed under the assumption that the SEC won’t get two teams. Current prediction: Auburn and LSU.
Capitol One: This bowl probably takes the team that just misses the BCS, either Alabama or LSU, or maybe even South Carolina. Current prediction: Alabama.
Cotton: This has Arkansas or Mississippi State written all over it, unless LSU slips out of the BCS picture. Current prediction: Arkansas.
Outback: This bowl likes to be mavericky, as Tina Fey would say, so who knows. Current prediction: Mississippi State.
Chick-fil-A: My understanding is this bowl was very intrigued by having Georgia. That’d be too tough a sell now. Current prediction: South Carolina.
Gator: You can see why the Gator abandoned getting one of the ACC’s top teams in favor of having only the sixth selection of SEC teams. Even at this level of the pecking order, it’s looking at getting a team like Florida, South Carolina or Mississippi State, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. Current prediction: Florida.

And here’s where Georgia comes in.

Music City: Kentucky has been here two straight seasons, and figures to still be on the board this time around too. If Georgia is 6-6, this could be the destination, unless the SEC only gets one team in the BCS, or Tennessee wins out to also get to 6-6. Current prediction: Georgia.
Liberty: The consolation prize for not getting the Music City bid. Current prediction: Kentucky.
BBVA Compass: The only way Georgia falls this far – well there’s another way, which I’ll get to – is if Tennessee or Ole Miss win out, and one of them or Kentucky gets picked for each of the above bowls over Georgia. Not likely.
Current prediction: Tennessee if it beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky, or Ole Miss if it beats LSU and Mississippi State. If not ... get someone from the Sun Belt on the phone.

There’s still a very remote chance that Georgia makes it with a 5-7 record – but not remote enough that we can’t still examine it.

At the moment, there are 55 bowl-eligible teams, with 70 bowl slots to be filled. Here’s the breakdown by conference:

ACC: 6
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
Big Ten: 7
Independents: 2 (Army and Navy but not Notre Dame)
Conf. USA: 5
MAC: 5
Mountain West: 4
Pac-10: 4 (omitting Southern California, which isn’t eligible.)
SEC: 8
Sun Belt: 0
WAC: 4

There are 26 teams that are currently eliminated from consideration. But if there aren’t 70 six-win teams that are eligible, it opens back up. One idea is to let a non-FBS team in. Failing that, or just canceling a bowl, here’s betting a brand name BCS conference team, like Georgia or Georgia Tech, would get the nod.


Anonymous said...

God save us. Beat Tech!

CSA said...

I just hope we get a decent bowl for the players, and seniors, that have played their hearts out.

After losing to Colorado, this season was basically over. Winning was just for pride. Now, BEAT TECH!

Anonymous said...

I kinda thought that Tennessee already beat Ole Miss. I think you meant that Tennessee beat Vanderbilt.

Seth Emerson said...

Thanks. Corrected it.

Army Dawg said...

Never thought I'd see the day when Army was bowl eligible and Georgia was not. Hopefully we'll beat Tech and get there. I'm really glad to see Army has hired the right coach and has Army playing competitive football again.

Roll Tide!
Go Cocks!

Beat Tech!
Beat Navy and Beat Notre Dame!

Anonymous said...

I think the Music City is a long shot for UGA. If Tennessee wins at Vandy(a team that's lost 5 in a row by an average of about 30 points) and at home vs UK(a team UT has beaten 25 straight), then I think the Music City will jump at the chance to take a 6-6 UT team on a 4 game winning streak. UT will be overjoyed about making a bowl game in a year where that didn't seem possible and will pack the stadium in Nashville in a matchup with UNC or Clemson. So, we need to hope they lose one or we are going to be stuck in the Liberty vs UCF(probably) or in the Birmingham bowl vs a Big East team.

If UT loses to UK, I could see the Music City taking a 7-5 UK team over 6-6 UGA despite our head to head win and better conference record. Bottom line is UK will bring more people to that game even though they've been their the last two seasons.

Still hoping for a Music City matchup vs UNC or Clemson. That's certainly best case scenario, but not getting my hopes up.

You know the Liberty is hoping Ole Miss can get to 6-6, but that's not going to happen. So, it's likely UCF vs UGA in the Liberty Bowl IF we beat Tech. That's a matchup that will not draw many people in the stands or to their TV's. That said, when you go 6-6 and lose to Colorado, it's probably better than we deserve.

Anonymous said...

The last comment was RIGHT ON. I guarantee Music City reps are going to be at the UT and Vandy game this weekend... They will see UT pack out the stands, and the decision will be that much easier. If Tenn wins out (which they probably will because KY is a home game for them), then they will 100% be playing in the MUSIC city bowl.

In all honesty, we need to hope UT beats vandy and loses to KY... Because that is the only way we are going to Nashville.

That being said. Nashville is the most amazing city (outside of Athens), and I would love to beat up on UNC up there!

Gadawg7781 said...

Georgia vs Clemson in the Music City
Bowl would be a match up that would fill the stands as well as bring in a lot of money to Nashville. It would also be a good game to watch.

BuLLdawg said...

2-8 Louisiana Lafayette
4-6 vols
2-8 intramural Vandie
6-5 Kentucky
1-9 Idaho State
15-36 combined record of all "wins" want to play whom in what bowl game ?

And, why do you want to play in the bowl game, so the current "coaching staff" can screw up our players for another 30 days ?

So that Coach Richt does not end the 14-game bowl streak for The Georgia Bulldogs ?