My blog has moved!

You should be automatically redirected in 6 seconds. If not, visit
and update your bookmarks.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

New bubble watch: Georgia

Georgia’s double-overtime loss to Florida on Tuesday could end up just being a painful footnote on this season. Or, coupled with last week’s home loss to Tennessee, the two home losses might be viewed as the missed opportunities that cost the Bulldogs.

That depends on what happens from here out. The best guess at this point, and it’s an educated guess, is that Georgia will need a 9-7 SEC regular season record, a win over Xavier, and at least one win in Atlanta to feel comfortable going into selection Sunday.

The problem is, in the arduous East Division, Georgia has now played Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida at home and only gone 1-2. So the path to nine wins now may have to include a near-sweep of the West, perhaps a sweep of South Carolina, and a home win over Vanderbilt.

That still may not take care of the quality-win index, so the Bulldogs may need to steal some road wins over those tough Eastern foes.

Like, say, Saturday at Kentucky.

Despite all that, we at the Wannabe Lunardi Blog remain optimistic about Georgia’s chances. We’re still looking at numbers that are generally in the Bulldogs’ favor, with a schedule that’s difficult, but doable. (And that Xavier game is looming very, very large right now.)

The current breakdown:

Record: 14-5 overall, 3-3 in the SEC
RPI: 47
SOS: 49
Record vs. top 50 in RPI: 1-5 (beat Kentucky, lost to Notre Dame, Temple, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Florida)
Record vs. top 100: 4-5 (also beat UAB, Colorado and Mississippi)

What happened Tuesday:
Besides Georgia’s own loss, former opponent Colorado fell at home to Kansas, and the Buffaloes are now 89 in the RPI. On the plus side of the ledger, as we begin to look at other at-large hopefuls Marquette fell at home to UConn and Virginia Tech lost at Georgia Tech.

What to watch Wednesday and Thursday: UAB, which has slipped to 52 in the RPI, hosts Marshall. Temple and Xavier each have home games they should win.

On Thursday, Vanderbilt plays at Mississippi State. When it comes to the pure numbers and resume’ Georgia should probably be rooting for Vandy. Never mind the division race – not because Georgia is out of it yet, but because it doesn’t matter for the NCAA tournament. The fact the Bulldogs play Vandy twice does.

Next up for Georgia: The visit to Kentucky (Saturday at 4 p.m.) still sets up as a game where the Bulldogs have more to gain than lose. But the events of last week now mean the Bulldogs need quality wins more than ever.


Anonymous said...

I think we need to root for MSU to beat Vandy.

If UGA finishes 9-7 and is 5th in the East, it will be a more difficult argument than if they finish 9-7 and 4th in the East. It's possible that Vandy or UT could finish 9-7 or 8-8. Not likely, but possible.

Anonymous said...

Mark Richt should be fired based on the following plethora of statistics.....

Just kidding.

Anonymous said...

UGA needs to continue to take baby steps in BB. Mark Fox isnt quite ready to take this team to the big dance just yet. A NIT bid is what the dawgs will end up getting. Mark Fox needs some smart and agressive players to play in the big one first.

Anonymous said...

Its more of a bubble burst than a bubble watch for the Dawgs. Huge loss for the dawgs last night. Gotta win the SEC tournament now if Dawgs wanna hit the big dance im afraid.

Anonymous said...

"perhaps a sweep of South Carolina"...the gameycocks have already beaten two teams who have beaten us...that aint looking too likely.

GreenDawg said...

Geez, I don't get the negativity surrounding the basketball program. I don't think it's quite time to be giving up on an at-large bid just yet.

Yesterday I even read a rant where someone had given up on Mark Fox. If you had told us we'd even be in contention for an at-large bid in his second year we'd all be ecstatic.

Thanks for the coverage, Seth. And thanks for keeping it all in perspective.

Anonymous said...

After watching the game last night, I wonder if all the Leslie hype is justified. Don't get me wrong, I love to see the dunks, but if he is one of our star players that will be going to the NBA, will he ever be the guy to really step up when we need him? He seems to be happy getting putbacks and not using his ability to create an offense on his own. To his credit he did make a few nice assists & rebounds. He is an amazing athlete, but I am on the fence about him being an amazing b-ball player worthy of being drafted as a Junior. I would love to hear others (rational) opinions.

Wes said...

Seth ... I was at the game last night and couldn't help but think that our players were gassed by the end of the 1st OT. UF owned the game in the 2nd OT and looked like they wanted it more, and had the endurance to outlast us. I'll admit, having a 3-pt lead with six seconds left probably had the Dawgs thinking the game was over, only to see it tie - had to be a HUGE downer. But from an S&C standpoint, do you have much insight into what the basketball program does? Does each program have their own specific S&C, or is it one S&C staff for the athletic department as a whole that is divied out to the individual teams? Is the team coaches responsibility or the athletic department's to oversee the S&C program?

Anonymous said...

Wes, I would say that what you saw has more to do with our lack of depth. I heard where Trey played 47 minutes. That's not okay for anyone. We have to have more production out of our bench and right now, we unfortunately don't have the talent to do so.

Anonymous said...

Mark Richt should be fired for yesterday's loss to Florida! If he wasn't the coach of the football team this wouldn't have happened! We haven't been ranked since 2003! Ever since Richt got here in 2001 our basketball program has been on its way down! Here are some stats to back me up:

80.394% of the time that Richt is in Athens georgia loses their basketball games

95.3184645% of the time that Kentucky plays basketball outside of Athens they win

That is 95.3184645% people! Wake up! Mark Richt needs to go!


Anonymous said...

@Anon 4:03

Good impersonation. That comment needed a lot more weird spacing though.

Anonymous said...

It's obvious Fox doesn't have what it takes to win the close games. I'm tired of mediocrity. Bring in Bobby Knight.

Anonymous said...

Holy crap, Georgia fans are some of the dumbest in the country.

A team without a great deal of depth gassed at the end of two overtimes? Wow. I'm shocked!

But yeah, we're toast. Not going to make the NCAAs at all. Not a chance. Fire Fox.