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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

UGA vs. the odds, or an excuse to post an "Empire Strikes Back" picture

Let’s start this with the usual disclaimer that we don’t condone gambling. So that’s out of the way. But for the purposes of analyzing perception against performance it’s really, really useful.

For instance, the perception is that the Georgia men’s basketball team is pretty much winning the games it should, and not winning the ones it shouldn’t. So I wondered, as I often do, does its performance against the Vegas betting lines bear that out?

It does, sort of.

According to, the Bulldogs are 9-3 when the favorite, and 4-4 when they’re the underdog. (Four games didn’t have a betting line.) Overall, the Bulldogs are 9-10-1 against the spread.

Here are the games Georgia lost as the favorite, all home games:

- Tennessee ..... UGA favored by 5, lost by two.
- Florida ....... UGA favored by 2.5, lost in double overtime by 13.
- Xavier ........ UGA favored by 4.5, lost by eight.

And here are the games it won as the underdog:

- at Saint Louis …. +1 … Won by two.
- at Georgia Tech … +3.5 .. Won by one.
- Kentucky ........ +5.5 .. Won by seven.
- at Ole Miss....... +4 …. Won by 22.

For comparison purposes:

- Vanderbilt (tonight’s opponent) is 12-2 as the favorite, and 2-4 as the underdog.
- Kentucky is 10-7 as the favorite, and 2-0 as the underdog.
- Florida is 11-4 as the favorite, and 5-0 as the underdog.
- Tennessee is 9-7 as the favorite, and 4-3 as the underdog.

As for tonight, Georgia is currently a 2.5-point favorite over Vanderbilt.

Oh, and for your daily football fix:

Last season Georgia was 5-4 as the favorite (losses to Arkansas, Mississippi State, Colorado and Central Florida), and 0-3 as the underdog (losses to South Carolina, Florida and Auburn). The Idaho State game was off the board.


BulldogBry said...

Gambling is illegal here at Bushwood.

Seth Emerson said...

Well done.

BulldogBen said...

Adventure. Excitement. A Jedi craves not these things.

Anonymous said...

Odds of UGA football team winning more than 5 games? 10%.


5 COMING UP IN 2011?

Willy Beamen said...

I'm really losing my patience with this SOB posting just ridiculous crap on this blog on every post. I mean, come on, nobody in the world really believes that Georgia will only win 4 games next year?!? It's so childish and pathetic.

I would say what I would like to do to a person like this, but it would jsut get deleted anyway. This post wasn't even about football and he posted his pathetic crap.

Seth, please set it up so you can only post on this blog if you register an account. It's been going on for too long and it is ruining this blog.

Rick said...

@Billy Beamen

Honestly, you think that will stop anyone from posting? Everyone has a gmail account so removing the Anonymous posting is just pointless. Until Seth can ban by IP, these trolls will continue. It's just part of life.

Rick said...

Um, I meant WILLY Beamen...

Anonymous said...

Don't pay attention to it. Some goober trying to stir the pot. The less attention the fewer stupid posts we will see. Remember this is a free site, so, like the AJC, this is going to happen.

Willy Beamen said...

Oh I'm sure it won't stop the trolls from posting, but it will at least make them have to identify themselves and they'll be a much easier to just "look over" instead of reading their pointless crap.