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Sunday, February 27, 2011

SEC tourney: Breaking down Georgia's scenarios

Georgia finishes the regular season this week by playing LSU and then Alabama. Next week is the SEC tournament, where it’s very possible Georgia could play … LSU and then Alabama.

Here are the current SEC standings:

EAST …….. W-L …… Div.
z-Florida ……. 11-3 …… 7-2
Vanderbilt … 9-5 …….. 4-4
Kentucky …... 8-6 ……. 5-3
Georgia …….. 8-6 …….. 4-6
Tennessee …. 7-7 ………. 4-4
S. Carolina … 5-9 ……… 2-7

z-Alabama …… 11-3 ……. 8-2
Arkansas …..… 7-7 ……….4-4
Mississippi St. . 7-7 …….. 5-4
Ole Miss ….….. 6-8 .…….5-3
LSU ………..…. 3-11 ….… 3-6
Auburn ……….. 2-12 ….. 1-7

z-Clinched top seed

And here’s the SEC tournament schedule:

First round:

Game 1: W5 vs. E4, 1 p.m.
Game 2: E6 vs. W3, 3:30 p.m.
Game 3: E5 vs. W4, 7:30 p.m.
Game 4: W6 vs. E3, 10 p.m.

Game 1 winner vs. Alabama, 1 p.m.
Game 2 winner vs. E2, 3:30 p.m.
Game 3 winner vs. Florida, 7:30 p.m.
Game 4 winner vs. W2, 10 p.m.

The East is quite the muddle between second and fifth. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, the next is division record.

Georgia will lose a tiebreaker if it finishes in a two-way tie with any of the other three teams: Vanderbilt has the head-to-head sweep, while Kentucky and Tennessee will have better division records.

It only gets a bit better for Georgia if there are three- or even four-way ties. The first tiebreaker is record between the tied teams, but at best Georgia has the split with Kentucky and Tennessee. So after at least one team wins that tiebreaker, it goes back to division record, where Georgia will not have an advantage.

So basically, in order to avoid the fifth seed, Georgia needs to have the better win-loss record. And that’s entirely possible. The remaining schedule:

Vanderbilt …. At Kentucky, vs. Florida
Kentucky ….. vs. Vanderbilt, at Tennessee
Georgia ……. vs. LSU, at Alabama
Tennessee ….. at South Carolina, vs. Kentucky

Mathematically Georgia could still finish second: Vanderbilt would have to lose out, Georgia would have to win out, and Kentucky would have to lose at Tennessee.

On the other hand, fifth place is still a possibility, even if Georgia beats LSU: Tennessee wins out, Kentucky beats Vanderbilt and Georgia loses at Alabama.

But given all the tiebreakers, the fourth seed seems a decent bet. That would mean a first-round matchup with the West fifth seed, which almost certainly will be LSU. And the winner of that game gets Alabama.

Anyway, I think I have all this right. Feel free to correct any of my scenarios or math. But as near as I can figure, that's where it stands.


PTC DAWG said...

Dawgs are going to be 10-6 in SEC play.

PTC DAWG said...

2ndly, look for South Carolina to be in the Semis due to seeding quirks.

PTC said...

Maybe not, I misread it totally. SC would draw E2 in 2nd round.

Anonymous said...

Dawgs will be one and done in both SEC and NIT tournaments. Bank on it !

Anonymous said...

LMAO at the Tech trolls. Just pathetic. Go back to the Dunwoody Journal Constitution.

Anonymous said...

If Techies are trolling our basketball blog, that tells you how things have flipped. GT basketball used to be their only hope... now it's an embarrassment. And to top it all off, UGA basketball is on the rise. That's why you see them posting on here (just like they always have for football).

gastr1 said...

Maybe the Tech trolls could actually bother attending their games for a change. What was it, 3000 fans or something for the debacle against UVa? What a bunch of losers.

Anonymous said...

Where is Tech on The Bubble?

Anonymous said...

Oh thats right, you guys lost at home to Charlotte. At least the Kennesaw State game was "on the road"

No wonder theyre watching our games

Anonymous said...

South Carolina couldn't win the Region 8A tourney. Last I checked, the object of the game was to put the ball in the basket and they have no one who can shoot the ball.

Anonymous said...

South Carolina is 2-2 against Vandy and Florida. UGA is 0-4 against Vandy and Florida.

SC is a bad team, but they are dangerous.

calif dawg said...

as happy as I am about our basketball team being relevant again, how about the #1 softball team laying a mercy on the other #1 Arizona.

Anonymous said...

Montemayor dominated^