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Wednesday, February 9, 2011

New bubble watch: Georgia's chances down, not out

One month from today, the NCAA tournament selection committee will begin meeting to put together the 68-team field. Georgia is likely to be on that board – but Tuesday’s loss to Xavier didn’t help things.

Given the RPI numbers and the state of the bubble, Georgia’s chances should still be better than even. But the Bulldogs just aren’t playing well right now: Losing three of the last four at home, and needing to go overtime to beat woeful Auburn.

The Bulldogs need quality wins, and the chances to get them are diminishing: Vanderbilt’s visit next week would seem the best chance; unless the Bulldogs can pull off road victories at Tennessee, Florida and Alabama.

The guess here – and it’s only a snapshot guess – is Georgia needs to reach the 10-win mark in SEC play, including the tournament, to feel comfortable.

(And in case anybody's wondering, The Blog's graphics department ran out of the 50 percent bubble-watch meter, so just take my word for it: Georgia's chances are 50 percent.)

Record: 16-7 overall, 5-4 in the SEC
RPI: 46
SOS: 41
Record vs. top 50 in RPI: 2-7 (beat Kentucky and UAB, lost to Notre Dame, Kentucky, Florida, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Temple)
Record vs. top 100: 4-7 (also beat Mississippi and Colorado)

What happened Tuesday: Georgia’s RPI rank dropped about 10 spots after losing to Xavier, which shows that playing highly-ranked teams isn’t going to help the Bulldogs anymore if they can’t beat them. In other bubble news, Clemson’s win over Boston College wasn’t good news because BC is in decent shape already and Clemson is now fast-rising in the RPI (64).

What to watch today and tomorrow: I’d say the picture is becoming clear enough for Georgia to start rooting for its former opponents and rooting against the other teams. Therefore …

As far as former opponents, Colorado has slipped to 90 in the RPI, but a win over Texas A&M tonight would help. Arkansas (at Mississippi State) is just outside the top 100, while Ole Miss (vs. LSU) has moved up to 60. And Notre Dame has a pretty big game against Louisville.

Bubble teams in action tonight: Memphis (at UCF), VCU (at Delaware), Marquette (at South Florida), Miami (at Wake Forest), Baylor (vs. Nebraska) … and tomorrow: Florida State (at Georgia Tech), Penn State (at Michigan State), Washington (vs. California), Minnesota (vs. Illinois).

Next up for Georgia: South Carolina (RPI rank of 104) wouldn’t be a quality win right now, but the Bulldogs need all the road wins they can collect at this point. Their 6-4 record away from home, including 5-2 on non-neutral courts, may be the best thing the Bulldogs have going for them.


GreenDawg said...

Our road to the dance becomes a lot easier if some of these teams help us out. If Arkansas and SCar can slip into the top 100 and Ole Miss makes it into the top 50 our resume looks a whole lot better.

Anonymous said...

None of this makes sense without the Bubble Meter. So your sayin' theres a chance?

Anonymous said...

Quite frankly I dont see this team beating South Carolina. We cant beat them in any sport lately. Its sad to see a University with all its resources and a state with plenty of good athletes not getting it done against mickey mouse schools.

Anonymous said...

Let me start by saying that I enjoy watching Coach Fox and this team. I think CMF is going to do a great job.

Having said that...does anyone else get a little annoyed by Trey Thompkins? Is there a less clutch player than Trey? He's the UGA basketball version of A-Rod: he puts up numbers but crumbles in crunch time or big games.

Anonymous said...

My 85 year old Dad, who graduated from UGA in 1950, is convinced it has become a "girls school". He claims UGA's run by a bunch of liberal sissys.

He might be right.

Anonymous said...

You could sense the frustration settling in early in this game, from an offensive standpoint. Their double-downs on Trey and overall perimeter defense shut us down. We never adjusted. Don't know if it's because we haven't been defended this way all year or what...but no in-game adjustments were made. Not a good sign.

VAdawg said...

I;m right there with you Anon at 4:22. I love Mark Fox and think our future is bright with him. However, this team has fallen on some TOUGH times. I think there are two main factors:
1) Gerald's play has fallen off like crazy. He has just not been consistent since the middle of January. I don't know what it is, but his first step just doesn't seem to be as strong as it was in the beginning of the season. He just can't get to the basket.

2.) Trey is not playing to his strengths on offense. It frustrates me to absolutely no end to see him get the ball beyond the three point line nearly every play on offense. It's like he becomes a gaurd; he looks for the open three, then tries to put a move on to drive to the hoop, and ends up dishing it off. And a lot of times, he makes great passes (Leslie's lob last night came from this exact scenario). But my problem is, we have guards to do guards' work! For God sakes, get down low and bang it out Trey! I know he's getting a lot of double teams, but even if he doesn't score on a first effort, he can be there to get offensive boards and draw fouls.

I'm starting to think that it just might not happen for this club. We have not shown that we can rise up to get the must-win games. Hope I'm wrong, but I think with Alabama coming on and the perception of the SEC, we're just not going to be high enough on the board out of the SEC. However, I'm not losing hope with Fox. I'm still VERY confident in his future.

Anonymous said...

Why do they have to be "liberal" sissies? Take your idiotic biases elsewhere.

bnwdog said...

Because they are "liberal sissies" anon Techie! Especially Adams and the administration, who think we should be the Yale or Harvard of the south which has made our athletics resemble Georgia Tech’s! Hopefully McGarity will be the man to balance the power and level the pendulum!

Anonymous said...

Mark Fox doesn't have any passion! It's time for him and Mark Richt to go!