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Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Tuesday Links (6/15)

A few weeks ago, The Senator posted details from Tomahawk Nation's list of championship odds for each SEC team this season. I'm still a little confused about the optimism aimed at Tennessee, but I'm also the same guy who picked roughly 41 percent of the winners in my picks columns last year.

But hey, gambling's illegal in this country anyway, so it's all just in good fun. And with that in mind, I decided to take a shot at predicting the lines for each UGA game this season. So… feel free to bookmark this post and email it back to me at year's end to prove what an idiot I am.

9/4 -- Louisiana-Lafayette. There will be plenty of questions awaiting Georgia in its first game, but the outcome won't be one of them. Dawgs by 28.

9/11 -- @ South Carolina. Gamecocks will likely still be riding the wave of preseason prognosticators predicting potential positives in the program (how's that for aliteration?), while even a big win in Week 1 won't be enough to convince anyone that Georgia has turned the corner. Game's in Columbia, so that's probably worth three for the Cocks. South Carolina by 3.

9/18 -- Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a preseason darling and open with two gimme games, so the defense won't have been exposed yet. Much of this will depend on what Georgia does in Columbia the previous week, but assuming the Dawgs don't look terrible, I think they'll still be favored. Georgia by 1.5.

9/25 -- @ Mississippi State. I think the other Bulldogs are going to be decent this year, but they won't be a favorite of Vegas. Dawgs by 7... and if you're so inclined, MSU might be a good team to bet early this season.

10/2 -- @ Colorado. Tough to call these non-conference games, but Georgia was a seven-point favorite when it went to Arizona State in 2008, but Colorado probably isn't as good as folks thought Arizona State would be that year. (Of course, neither is Georgia). So let's stick around the same number... Georgia by 7.

10/9 -- Tennessee. Again, I'm not expecting much of the Vols this year. And by early October, neither will Vegas. Georgia by 13.

10/16 -- Vanderbilt. The state of Tennessee isn't likely to see a lot of good football this year. Georgia by 17.

10/23 -- @ Kentucky. Speaking of gambling, have I mentioned that the ponies will be running at Keeneland during Georgia's visit this year? Fan-friggin-tastic. Kentucky has either won or played Georgia close for four straight seasons now, and I'm assuming Vegas won't forget that. Georgia by 6.

10/30 -- vs. Florida. I think the Dawgs will be improved this year. I also think Florida almost has to take a step back from its recent success. And although Florida has won the past two games by a combined score of 90-27, the Gators have only out-gained UGA by a total of 63 yards. The big difference? Georgia has had 8 turnovers (and a botched onside kick) and Florida has had none. That has to turn around a bit. Still... it's hard to favor the Dawgs in any game against Florida. Gators by 7.

11/6 -- Idaho State. This isn't a D-1A matchup, so no betting line. But I'll predict a Logan Gray receiving TD and passing TD. This is why I'm a bad gambler. I like to live dangerously.

11/13 -- @ Auburn. Understandably Alabama and Florida will be the preseason favorites for the SEC title game. But I wouldn't be too surprised if this game actually proved to be an advanced screening of the conference's title matchup. The more I read about the Tigers, the more I like 'em this year. Auburn by 3.

11/27 -- Georgia Tech. It's been so long since Reshad Jones hasn't determined the outcome of a UGA-Tech game, I don't know what to think. Let's say Dawgs by 3.5.

So... how far off am I on these?

OK, linkage...

-- I mentioned in the opening how the turnover margin has been the real difference in the Georgia-Florida series the last two years. Phil Steele and Senator Blutarsky look at how the Dawgs might benefit in 2010 from a more reasonable turnover margin.

-- Christian LeMay's father says his hearing that could result in a 30-day suspension "Went well."

-- Tim Tucker looks at Georgia's receiving corps in what is likely to be A.J. Green's last year in Athens.

-- Paul Westerdawg takes solace in the change made to David Perno's staff after a dismal season on the mound for the Diamond Dogs.

-- After firing his pitching coach, Perno says he's going to take a more active role in handling the hurlers in 2011.

-- Patrick Garbin offers another interesting history lesson on Georgia and another reason not to like Tennessee.

-- DawgOnTap sent me an email yesterday asking for my thoughts on this post from SEC Rivals, predicting a 4th-place finish for Georgia (and an SEC West title for LSU).

Hey, everyone's entitled to their opinion, so I'm not going to criticize. I'm just not sure Mr. Owenby applied his logic equally among all teams. The Chapel Bell offers some additional insight into the predictions.

-- Former Georgia receiver Arthur Marshall was sentenced to 69 months in prison.

-- Blitzology goes into some good detail on how and why the 3-4 is effective. (h/t GTP)

-- Funny or Die remakes "Breaking Bad" as if it were a sitcom on ABC.

-- Newsweek is calling this "a joke" but I'm telling you, when it happens for real, I'll be ready, and Florida won't.

-- Conan O'Brien got a hero's welcome in Atlanta yesterday. I had a great time at last night's show, highlighted by a phenomenal Triumph video and the always amazing Walker Lever, which for legal purposes is now called "The Chuck Norris Rural Law Enforcement Handle."

-- "Friday Night Lights" will be bringing back some old favorites for what appears to be its final season.

-- And finally, a quick side note: I'm taking the afternoon off from the blog to work on a project for later this week. I think you're going to like it though... so stay tuned.


Ginny said...

As much as I hate to admit it, I think you're pretty spot on with your predictions for this season. USC, Auburn and Florida are my predictions for losses too. CAN we beat them? Absolutely. And I think we have a great chance to. But:

1. USC has probably had this game circled on their calendar since last year. It's their first chance to really prove that they're worth the hype. First road game for us...with a new QB. Just don't see us coming out of Columbia with a win.

2. I'm just going to assume we lose to Florida until proven other wise.

3. We've beaten Auburn 4 years in a row now. They're due for a win and are probably pretty sick of losing to us. And it's at Auburn.

The scary thing is, Arkansas, Miss. St., Tennessee and Ga Tech aren't guaranteed wins either. I really hope our coaches and players don't overlook the other Bulldogs.

I think we'll definitely learn a lot about this team in the first month. If we can make it to October unscathed, I'll be a very, very happy girl.

Andy said...

I think your lines are all right on. However, I will eat my hat if we lose to USC. It will definitely be a close game as always, but I have learned not to doubt Mark Richt on the road, even with a freshman qb. I am more worried about Ark at home.

Florida is obviously an L until we can prove we can win in Jacksonville. The more I look at it, the Auburn game will probably be the biggest game of the year. But once again...never doubt Richt in an opponent's stadium.

Anonymous said...

Mark Richt has averaged 3 conference losses per year for the last four years and your saying he will make it five years this year. We are in the exact same situation we were in last year with so much "uncertainty". The Mark Richt "Uncertainty Principle"! Even your spin monkeys are talking about the uncertainties.

David Hale said...

Anon, I don't give a damn if you don't like Mark Richt. But quit with this "spin monkey" bullshit. I have ZERO ties to UGA. I just hate when people screw up my blog with pointless drivel.

JRL said...

Anon the nature of college football always produces "uncertainty" your drivel is the only certainty I see.

Anonymous said...

Oh come on, the concensus is looking for Georgia to loose 3 games and barely finish in the top twenty five. I ash you again, could Kirby Smart or Will Muschamp do any worse?

David Hale said...

The question isn't "Could they do any worse." The question is if they could do any better.

Tell you what, Anon... if UGA loses to Fla and misses out on the SECCG again this year, you may have me convinced for 2011. But situation is what it is for now, right? So if you're a Georgia fan, why not hope for the best?

Dawgfan17 said...

2006 We went into Columbia with an unproven qb, who got hurt and replaced by a true freshman qb, who played one of the worst games he had during his time at UGA (3 picks I believe) USC had countless chances from inside the 10 and couldn't score. Last year we had Cox at qb and he threw for a million yards and we lit up their "vaunted" D to beat them. Yes USC plays UGA CLOSE, but in the end they almost always find a way to lose. I expect this year to be no different. It might not be pretty but UGA escapes with another close win and Spurrier not only throws his visor to the ground but then sets it on fire.

Anonymous said...

I did hope for the best under Goff and Donnan, where were you? Our President fired our last coach when it was apparent that our program had plateaued, we had lost to all of our biggest rivals, and the AD could not guarantee that the overall and record against are rivals would improve the next year.
Richt is just 9-7 to our four biggest annual rivals (UT, UF, AU, Ga Tech) over the last four years. Our overall record the last four years is strong but we certainly have had a share of frustration too.