My blog has moved!

You should be automatically redirected in 6 seconds. If not, visit
and update your bookmarks.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Fun With Numbers: How Bad Was It Really?

Georgia's overall class didn't provide enough "points" to rate up there with the biggest of the big boys, but let's take a closer look. This is all based off of Scout's rankings:

Of the top 25 classes, Georgia signed the third fewest number of players at just 19. If you take away Lonnie Outlaw, who will go to GMC, then Georgia is tied for the fewest with Ohio State and USC. Penn State (20 signees) was the only other team in the top 25 with fewer than 22.

Of the 11 other SEC schools, none had fewer than 24 commitments.

If you go simply by the average number of stars for a class, Georgia scored a 3.47 -- the second-highest total in the SEC and the ninth-best mark overall.

Figure that the odds of a highly regarded recruit panning out in college are better than a lower-tier guy, and it's certainly quite possible that, despite a lower ranking overall, the impact of this class will be as good as any in the SEC (with the possible exception of the ridiculous haul Florida came up with).

And, as we discussed at length last week, much of this stuff doesn't turn out to mean a whole lot in four years anyway. Go back and look at the top-100 guys UGA has gotten over the years. It's at best a 50-50 shot of whether they make a real impact.

Anyway, here's a run down of the rest of the SEC (minus Vandy, who was the only team not ranked in the national top 50), plus Georgia Tech.

School Scout
Florida 1 28 516
21 3.89
Alabama 4 29 2 14 16 3.38
Auburn 5 32 3 10 13 3.34
LSU 6 29 0 12 12 3.34
Ole Miss
14 25 1 6 6 3.24
Tennessee 15 25 1 7 8 3.24
Georgia 21 19 1 9 10 3.47
S. Carolina
34 24 1 1 2 2.88
Arkansas 36 26 0 1 1 2.65
Miss. State
38 26 0 3 3 2.58
Georgia Tech
40 18 0 3 3 3.00
Kentucky 46 25 0 1 1 2.68

(*Note, Rodney Garner discussed the SEC's new rule that a team cannot sign more than 28 players without a penalty. There are caveats though when you consider junior college guys and counting some signees toward the previous year. But yes, Auburn, LSU and Alabama could potentially have to take a hit next year due to oversigning this year.)


Charles Armentrout said...


Can you please explain how the potential major recruiting hit that Auburn, Alabama, and LSU could get caught with next year works. It was really cool to meet you at the media press conference. You look and sound like much more like a southern native than you sound like in your blog.

Anonymous said...

I think the biggest news today was that former 5-star prospect Richard Samuel will be an LB now

David Hale said...

Well, they may take a hit or they may not... a lot depends on how many guys qualify and how those schools can work the numbers. Essentially though, a school can sign 28 players a year. If they sign more, there's a 2-for-1 tradeoff next year. So let's say LSU does sign 29. Next year, they could only sign 26. If Auburn signs 31, next year they'll only be able to sign 22.

Anonymous said...

Re: the 28 player limit. That might be a good idea for a story. There is alot of confusion about what that limit truly means; how do early enrollees impact that number (do they count toward the 28 or are they applied to the previous year?) Just a thought.

King Jericho said...

As long as it's a "next year" deal, can't they continue to sign as many as they want every year?

Well, I'm allotted 1 signee after a few years of heavy recruiting, but I think I'll just sign 30 anyways. Oh, I can't sign any next year? Oh, okay. 25 next year.

I'm sure there's more than just shaking a finger at them though. Or am I totally wrong and that only applies to this year?

Anonymous said...

What is amazing is Fla made that haul with urban myer half retiring and Charlie Strong leaving. Stunning...

Ordep said...

Can't wait to see Rambo giving a good one to Da'Rick!

Carter said...

In and of itself, the class wasn't bad. However, you must look at it as relative to our competition. Also, look at how few of the top instate players we signed.

I honestly don't know how we will begin to compete with Florida, or Alabama for that matter. Our coaches are getting outworked in all phases of being a program compared to those guys.

CMR is a great man and a good coach. CUM and CNS are great coaches willing to put their teams above their families. Is that a healthy approach? Probably not. But at the end of the day it’s all about W's and L's.

Muckbeast said...

Maybe I'm a homer, but this matters more to me than total # of commitments:

"If you go simply by the average number of stars for a class, Georgia scored a 3.47 -- the second-highest total in the SEC and the ninth-best mark overall."

Muckbeast said...

"Also, look at how few of the top instate players we signed."

And this is the one thing that bothers and concerns me more than anything else.

It seems like this was a HUGE year for GA High School players. Why did we lose so many of them? :(

Wes said...

I went look for some info to shutup a Gaytor co-worker and I found something pretty interesting. Since 2005, Florida has only had 4 offensive players drafted in the top 4 rounds of the NFL Draft. Everyone has fallen in love with Meyers spread offense, but his success doesn't exactly bode too well for his offensive players.
Round 1=Percy Harvin (#22 overall,09) Round 3=Andre Caldwell (#99 overall, 08) Round 4= Louis Murphy (#129 overall, 09) Ciatrick Fiason (#122 overall, 05)
Round 1=Matthew Stafford (#1 overall, 09) Knowshon Moreno (#12 overall, 09) Round 2=Reggie Brown (#35 overall, 05) Mohammid Masaquoui (#50 overall, 09) Round 3=Leonard Pope (#72 overall, 06) David Greene (#85 overall, 05) Round 4=Max Jean-Giles (#99 overall, 06) Fred Gibson (# 131 overall, 05) Martrez Milner (#133 overall, 07)

Just thought that was intresting.

Carter said...

By all accounts next year's crop of instate talent is bigger and better.

Let's hope that our final coaching addition is a guy with a recruiting background. Travis Jones could do a world of good for his alma mater.

Carter said...


Your numbers confirm what NFL scouts think of Florida's offense.

But, I am far more concerned about their defense.

Anonymous said...

Hey guys coool down. this class is good for we needed...Look at last yrs class...It was a top 5 and we got alot of contribution from alot of them...You have to look at 2007 and 08 and 09 to get a picture. rogers was the only one we lost that we may would have wanted. The rest were short CB's etc....The SEC is about to change in terms of defense and how they defend the all comes around within 5 yrs time....we will be ok... in terms of star power..yea this class is not up there with others but these guys will contribute this yr and we are loaded on off and with CTG we will be ok...clam down. Let the AJC and 680 the Fand diss us.....they know Shi..

Todd said...

I don't get too wrapped up in how many stars a kid has next to his name or where UGA's class ranked. So what if Florida signed 4 and 5 star players and is ranked 1st? That only matters to the guys writing the articles and the talking heads. There are plenty of 4 and 5 start recruits that don't make it in college. The only ones that make an impact are the ones who make it off the sidelines. What matters is how these kids play as a unit - and when I think about that, Georgia is going to continue to be very competitive.

As far as wins and losses, I'll always go with Richt over Meyer and Saban, because there is a lot more in life. Those that place their identity in how "successful" they are get burned out or will always be looking for the next challenge. I want a loyal coach who invests in the lives of these young men and shows them that success in life is ultimately more important than success on the field.

Anonymous said...

Integrity in recruiting is dead and just plain boring to kids today. To recruit a top class a coach must rack up plenty of secondary recruiting violations (you only get a slap on the wrist for those), explain to recruits that God favors you and your program, offer a scholarship to the best friend of 5 star recruit (even if that best friend would not start at a D2 school), have young girls trained by former strippers of the Gold club train on how to persuade young men how to commit and provide plenty of bells and whistles. Until UGA learns to use the same recruiting techniques employed by rivals their program will continue to fail.

Anonymous said...

We can spin it all we want but this is a day that I would rather forget! I ask one simple question: have we made up ground on Florida or have we lost ground? Dawg Nation needs to wake the hell up! I'm tired of the spin machine that is Richt and Garner on "they got who they were targeting". Give me a break..we got taken behind the woodshed today and spanked. All is not well in Athens.

David said...

The reason we got our ass kicked today is the numbers. Those of you saying its average stars per signee are completely wrong. The more bodies you bring in, the better your chances that some of them will be great players. When we have 20 openings for scholarships, we go to sign 20 guys. Alabama, Florida and the others are signing 28 guys per class. Obviously if you sign 28 guys every year you have too many players to meet the scholarship limit. However, Meyer and Saban the the other cutt-throats in the business kick their underperforming juniors and seniors off the team every year to open up schollys. (all scholarships are for 1 year and get renewed every year. There is no such thing as a 4 or 5 year scholarship) If Richt kicked off the uppersclassmen who show no signs of contributing to the team like Kevin Perez, etc. than you open up more opportunities to bring in more young players who you hope will pan out. Richt, being a good Christian would never do this to a young kid he gave his word to. But we're not competing with the top teams anymore are we.

FireBrand said...

I agree with Muck. I have a really big problem with us losing so many of the Big in-state names. While I'm glad they didn't go to Bama or Ohio State (who've been making in-roads we simply can't afford to endure), we lost Taylor to UF. We lost Da'Rick. We lost a lot of players to Auburn (which is to be expected, but not the BEST). I'm very upset about this.

What gives me hope is that we went through a lot this off-season. And we had a bad year on the field, as well. Hopefully this season sets us up for a huge 2011 in recruiting. I think the 3-4 should excite Athletes across the state to come play some attacking football.